A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got something to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
